Assume that your stock of sales merchandise is maintained based on the forecast demand. If the distributor’s sales personnel call on the first day of each month, compute your forecast sales by each of the three methods requested here.

Assume that your stock of sales merchandise is maintained based on the forecast demand. If the distributor’s sales personnel call on the first day of each month, compute your forecast sales by each of the three methods requested here.

ACTUAL

June

132

July

172

August

200

a.

Using a simple three-month moving average, what is the forecast for September? (Round your answer to 2 decimal places.)

Forecast for September

b.

Using a weighted moving average, what is the forecast for September with weights of 0.10, 0.20, and 0.70 for June, July, and August, respectively? (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answer to 2 decimal places.)

Forecast for September

c.

Using single exponential smoothing and assuming that the forecast for June had been 128, forecast sales for September with a smoothing constant alpha of 0.30. (Round your answer to 2 decimal places.)

Forecast for September

Actual demand for a product for the past three months was

Three months ago

385 units

Two months ago

335 units

Last month

290 units

a.

Using a simple three-month moving average, make a forecast for this month. (Round your answer to the nearest whole number.)

Forecast for this month

units

b.

If 285 units were actually demanded this month, what would your forecast be for next month, again using a 3-month moving average? (Round your answer to the nearest whole number.)

Forecast for the next month

units

c.

Using simple exponential smoothing, what would your forecast be for this month if the exponentially smoothed forecast for three months ago was 435 units and the smoothing constant was 0.40? (Round your answer to the nearest whole number.)

Forecast for this month

units

Here are the data for the past 21 months for actual sales of a particular product:

LAST YEAR

THIS YEAR

January

325

260

February

440

380

March

450

370

April

440

420

May

380

440

June

460

360

July

410

375

August

370

300

September

345

380

October

510

November

560

December

540

Develop a forecast for the fourth quarter using a three-quarter, weighted moving average. Weight the most recent quarter 0.50, the second most recent 0.25, and the third 0.25. Do the problem using quarters, as opposed to forecasting separate months. (Round your answer to 2 decimal places.)

Forecast for the fourth quarter

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